Event datasets involve irregular occurrences of events over the timeline and are prevalent in numerous domains.

The main reason to consider the Wold process as an alternative to the Hawkes process is its Markovian structure. Equally important, our results show significant improvements over the state of the art methods.

Event datasets involve irregular occurrences of events over the timeline and are prevalent in numerous domains.

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We would like to thank all the reviewers for their positive assessment of our work. We would like to politely disagree with your statement that "the proposed model seems to underperform the We found that increasing the block size beyond 16 for the TriTPP model did not improve the performance. In contrast, the RNN did benefit from larger hidden sizes (32 or 64). In the scalability experiment (Section 6.1) we made sure that both models have approximately the We found that stacking the nonlinearities (splines) did not improve the performance on the validation set. Thank you, we will run more experiments to see if this will allow us to improve the performance.

Modeling long horizon marked event sequences is a fundamental challenge in many real-world applications, including healthcare, finance, and user behavior modeling. Existing neural temporal point process models are typically au-toregressive, predicting the next event one step at a time, which limits their efficiency and leads to error accumulation in long-range forecasting. In this work, we propose a unified flow matching framework for marked temporal point processes that enables non-autoregressive, joint modeling of inter-event times and event types, via continuous and discrete flow matching. By learning continuous-time flows for both components, our method generates coherent long horizon event trajectories without sequential decoding. We evaluate our model on six real-world benchmarks and demonstrate significant improvements over autoregressive and diffusion-based baselines in both accuracy and generation efficiency.

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, we collected ~179 million power outage records at 15-minute intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15% of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties, counties with interconnected grids, and states with high solar generation exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

Continuously-observed event occurrences, often exhibit self- and mutually-exciting effects, which can be well modeled using temporal point processes. Beyond that, these event dynamics may also change over time, with certain periodic trends. We propose a novel variational auto-encoder to capture such a mixture of temporal dynamics. More specifically, the whole time interval of the input sequence is partitioned into a set of sub-intervals. The event dynamics are assumed to be stationary within each sub-interval, but could be changing across those sub-intervals. In particular, we use a sequential latent variable model to learn a dependency graph between the observed dimensions, for each sub-interval. The model predicts the future event times, by using the learned dependency graph to remove the noncontributing influences of past events. By doing so, the proposed model demonstrates its higher accuracy in predicting inter-event times and event types for several real-world event sequences, compared with existing state of the art neural point processes.

Human interactions create social networks forming the backbone of societies. Individuals adjust their opinions by exchanging information through social interactions. Two recurrent questions are whether social structures promote opinion polarisation or consensus in societies and whether polarisation can be avoided, particularly on social media. In this paper, we hypothesise that not only network structure but also the timings of social interactions regulate the emergence of opinion clusters. We devise a temporal version of the Deffuant opinion model where pairwise interactions follow temporal patterns and show that burstiness alone is sufficient to refrain from consensus and polarisation by promoting the reinforcement of local opinions. Individuals self-organise into a multi-partisan society due to network clustering, but the diversity of opinion clusters further increases with burstiness, particularly when individuals have low tolerance and prefer to adjust to similar peers. The emergent opinion landscape is well-balanced regarding clusters' size, with a small fraction of individuals converging to extreme opinions. We thus argue that polarisation is more likely to emerge in social media than offline social networks because of the relatively low social clustering observed online. Counter-intuitively, strengthening online social networks by increasing social redundancy may be a venue to reduce polarisation and promote opinion diversity.